科学研究和实地项目的数据共同表明，降低船速是目前最有效、成本最低的减少鲸类船撞死亡的手段。当船速从 15 节降至 10 节，一次碰撞造成鲸类死亡的概率从 79% 降至约 20%。

Both controlled science and large-scale field programs converge on the same conclusion: reducing vessel speed is the single most effective — and cheapest — way to cut lethal whale strikes. Drop ship speed from 15 to 10 knots and the probability that a collision kills the animal falls from 79% to roughly 20%.

速度与死亡概率的关系

Speed and the Probability of Death

国际捕鲸委员会（IWC）与美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）的研究确立了船速与鲸类死亡概率之间的明确关系：

Research from the International Whaling Commission (IWC) and the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has established a clear relationship between vessel speed and whale mortality:

速度的影响作用于两个层面：一是碰撞本身的冲击力——速度越高，船体对鲸类造成的创伤越严重；二是鲸类的反应时间——较慢的船速给了鲸类更多时间感知并规避危险。

Speed matters in two ways. The first is impact force itself — the faster the hull, the more catastrophic the trauma. The second is reaction time — a slower vessel gives the whale more time to detect the threat and move out of the way.

加州的实证：Blue Whales Blue Skies 项目

The California Test Bed: Blue Whales Blue Skies

加州"蓝鲸蓝天"（Blue Whales Blue Skies）自愿减速项目提供了大规模实证数据。2025 年夏季减速季结果：

California's Blue Whales Blue Skies voluntary slowdown program provides the largest field dataset to date. Results from the 2025 summer season:

• 44 家全球航运公司参与自愿减速
• 44 global shipping companies participated voluntarily
• 787 艘船次将船速降至 10 节
• 787 transits ran at 10 knots or below
• 覆盖加州海岸 48.1 万海里航行距离
• Across 481,000 nautical miles along the California coast
• 与 2016 年基准期相比，蓝鲸、鳍鲸和座头鲸致死碰撞风险下降 40%
• Compared to the 2016 baseline, lethal-strike risk fell 40% for blue, fin and humpback whales

这是迄今为止规模最大的自愿减速项目，也是最有力的现实验证。

It is the largest voluntary slowdown program ever run — and the strongest real-world evidence we have.

自愿措施的局限

The Limits of Voluntary

然而，自愿措施存在根本性局限。加州项目的长期数据显示，航运公司的遵守率长期在 50% 上下徘徊，意味着在任何时候，约有一半的过境船舶并未减速。

But voluntary programs have a structural ceiling. Long-term California data show shipping-company compliance hovers around 50%: at any given moment, roughly half the transiting fleet is still running at full speed.

2025 年 1 月，NOAA 撤回了一项拟扩大美国东海岸船速限制范围的提案，理由是来自航运业的反对意见。科学家警告，这一决定使极度濒危的北大西洋露脊鲸（现存不足 360 头）面临更大风险。

In January 2025, NOAA withdrew a proposal that would have expanded U.S. East Coast vessel-speed restrictions, citing industry opposition. Scientists warned the move increases risk to the critically endangered North Atlantic right whale — fewer than 360 of which remain.

强制措施的必要性

The Case for Mandatory Rules

研究人员和保护组织普遍认为，自愿减速项目虽有价值，但无法取代强制性规定。

Researchers and conservation groups broadly agree: voluntary slowdowns are valuable, but they cannot substitute for binding rules.

2024 年，国际海事组织（IMO）将地中海西北部认定为"特别敏感海域"（PSSA），为在该区域实施强制减速提供了法律框架。但具体措施的落实仍需各国政府主动推动。

In 2024, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) designated the northwestern Mediterranean a Particularly Sensitive Sea Area (PSSA), creating a legal framework for mandatory slowdowns in the region. But turning that framework into rules on the water still depends on national governments choosing to act.